Post by Andorinha on Dec 10, 2004 3:15:50 GMT -6
The following essay grew out of a reader discussion regarding Sauron's "next move" had He actually won the War of the Ring and taken back the One from a defeated Frodo. Would Sauron have consolidated his hold over Middle-earth, and then tried to invade/ conquer the Undying Lands?
A Comparative Appreciation of Sauron's Military Potential: Second Age vrs Third Age
At the end of the First Age Sauron's power base must have been severely downgraded, if not uprooted entirely. He seems to have had a crisis of faith when he viewed the absolute power of the host of Valinor. In fact, JRRT tells us that Sauron was so impressed that he converted on the spot:
"When Thangorodrim was broken and Morgoth overthrown, Sauron put on his fair hue again and did obeisance to Eonwe, the herald of Manwe, and abjured all his evil deeds. And some hold that this was not at first falsely done, but that Sauron in truth repented, if only out of fear, being dismayed by the fall of Morgoth and the great wrath of the Lords of the West." (Sil, PB, p. 353)
But Sauron soon fell back into his evil ways, though I can find no precise date for this "apostasy." Certainly by the time the Mirdain were at work on the first of the rings of power, Sauron was already plotting to gain dominion. So, at the very latest, Sauron, by 1500 - 1600 Second Age was trying to become a Great Power. He first built up his control over the Men of the East and the South, avoiding the Numenorean Havens and the Elven realms of Lindon. I imagine he also began gathering the Orcs, Trolls, Wargs and such as well. The Silmarillion does not tell us if he had created a capital and citadel before 1600, but he seems to have based his power in Mordor by at least 1600 when he used the fires of Orodruin to forge the One Ring, and (according to Appendix B LotR, p. 1120) he completed the construction of his first great fortress of Barad-dur.
From 1600 onward, he was at open war with the Elves, and had sufficient strength of Man-power/ Orc-power to ruin Eregion, sack Ost-in-Edhil, and overrun most of the great expanse of Eriador after 100 years of conflict.
He appears to have been on the verge of winning even in Lindon over Gil-galad, Cirdan, and Elrond when the unexpected arrival of a great armada from Numenor (sent by Tar-Miniastir 1700-1701) reversed his fortunes and drove his forces out of Lindon and Eriador altogether. For the next 100 years Sauron completed his conquest of the East, solidifying his control over the Men who lived there. After 1800, a more secure Sauron moved slowly, methodically against his chief foe, Numenor. Around 2250, the ring enslaved kings of Men were finally, fully corrupted into becoming his Nazgul-slaves, a great boost to Sauron's striking power.
Sauron continued to consolidate his position in the East and South, building up his defenses in Mordor for almost 1400 more years, a very long time of gradual preparation for the coming show-down with Numenor. When the power-mad Ar-Pharazon finally decided to contest directly with The Dark Lord for the domination of all Middle-earth (3261 SA) Sauron is again overwhelmed by the absolute power of the West, even if it is just the power of the Mortals who live near, but not in the Undying Lands. Rather than risk an outright battle, Sauron "surrendered," a move that left his carefully constructed power base in Middle-earth largely untouched. As a "prisoner" in Numenor, Sauron gradually turned the mind of Ar-Pharazon to a fuller madness, and initiated the idiotic attempt of Mortal Men to take Valinor.
I would assume that the massive army raised by the Numenorean establishment at its height of worldly glory and military might, would far exceed the power, discipline, and military potential of any army of mortals likely to be fielded elsewhere, even by Sauron in the Third Age (see Sil. "Akalabeth," p. 343 ff). Witnessing the sudden, complete elimination of Ar-Pharazon and his monstrous army, witnessing the destruction of Atalante, and being himself severely damaged in the backlash of the wrath of the gods, Sauron would have had firsthand experience of the futility of invading Valinor with any army composed of Mortal creatures (Orcs, Trolls, Men, etc). I think after this "salutary" lesson, he would never consider a direct attack upon the Undying Lands (at least by force).
Back in Middle-earth, though personally damaged, between 3319 and 3430, Sauron had time to re-inforce his position in Mordor, recruit new armies from the new generations of Orcs, Easterlings, Haradrim, Black Numenoreans, etc. (see Sil, "The Rings of Power," p. 363). At first, after this 100 years of rebuilding his power, Sauron's forces seem to be doing extremely well. They conquered Minas Ithil in 3429, and invested Osgiliath. Then, out of the blue, he was met by the combined Elven and Faithful Numenorean armies of the Last Alliance. Again, despite having built up his power over several thousand years, despite having a full century to ready his immediate defenses and field new armies, Sauron seems to have grossly underestimate the power remaining to the Elves. Between 1600 and 1700 he seemed to have such an easy time in conquering Eregion/ Eriador and pressuring Lindon, that he might be forgiven for thinking -- now that the great power of Numenor was whittled down to just Elendil, his sons and their retinues -- that he could not be successfully resisted.
But Sauron was wrong, although I cannot see any flaw in his slow developed, careful plans of war. Why are the Elves of Gil-galad/ Cirdan able in 3430 - 3441 SA to chase Sauron's forces all the way back to Mordor? What had altered between the first war in 1600-1700 and this second war in 3430? Where did the Elves get their new strength? Or, was Sauron himself vastly weaker in 3430-41, than he was in 1600? Did his brush with the Valar in 3319, reduce his overall power, and addle his wits as well as destroy his physical beauty?
I have not been able to find, in the Tolkien sources I own, a convincing mechanism for this unexpectedly strong Elvish/ Faithful-Numenorean counter attack. It seems to me that Sauron had plenty of time in the 100 years after the destruction of Numenor, to spy out the strengths of his foes, and prepare from his vast hordes of Easterlings/ Haradrim/ Orcs, etc. an appropriate system of strategies, tactics, and logistics to defeat any army of Middle-earth.
Whatever the reason, after a ten year siege (Troy?), Sauron is flushed out into the open some 100 miles away from his citadel of Barad-dur (assuming the Second Age Dark Tower stood where the later Third Age Tower was built). What was the Old Boy doing on Orodruin anyway? Here he wrestles with a couple of Men and Elves, gets thrown, loses a finger and a Ring, and vanishes.
When we compare the military situation of Sauron in the Second Age to his position in the Third Age, it seems to me that he had just about as much time to build up his power (from 1590 to 3441 SA, which would give us 1851 years, if my arithmetic is sound) as he had in the Third Age. Sauron first starts showing up as a potent force around 1050 Third Age when he begins to darken the southern reaches of Greenwood the Great, turning it into "Mirkwood." (see LotR Appendix B, 1122) By 1300 "Evil things begin to multiply again." p. 1122) So, from 1300 down to 3017 Third Age, Sauron has 1717 years to prepare for his Third Age war of conquest. There is, I think, little significant difference in Sauron's time of preparation for the Second Age war (1851) and his final war in the Third Age. So why does his Third Age attempt to dominate Middle-earth, seem so much more threatening, so much more close to success, than was his Second Age war?
In fact, Sauron, would have been a "diminished" Dark Lord throughout his entire Third Age adventures, far less strong than his "normal" power quotient, precisely because he was without the Ruling Ring. I assume that his powers of domination and recruitment would also be weaker in the Third Age without his Precious, yet, still he was, at least in the estimation of the Wise (Elrond, Galadriel, Cirdan, Glorfindel, Galadriel, Gandalf, Saruman, etc) far more likely to conquer this last time round. Was it simply that in the 3000 odd years of the Third Age, the Fading had taken such a great toll upon Faithful Men and Elves alike that they were in a far less capable state for meeting Sauron "force-to-force?"
It seems to me that we have a weaker Sauron in the Third Age, with a weaker power-base, facing a weakened Middle-earth opposition. Had he won his war in 3017 TA, regained his Ring, fully dominated Middle-earth, I think he would still find himself weaker than he was in the Second Age, and even less likely to consider an attempt upon the bastions of Valinor.
LOL! I quit!
A Comparative Appreciation of Sauron's Military Potential: Second Age vrs Third Age
At the end of the First Age Sauron's power base must have been severely downgraded, if not uprooted entirely. He seems to have had a crisis of faith when he viewed the absolute power of the host of Valinor. In fact, JRRT tells us that Sauron was so impressed that he converted on the spot:
"When Thangorodrim was broken and Morgoth overthrown, Sauron put on his fair hue again and did obeisance to Eonwe, the herald of Manwe, and abjured all his evil deeds. And some hold that this was not at first falsely done, but that Sauron in truth repented, if only out of fear, being dismayed by the fall of Morgoth and the great wrath of the Lords of the West." (Sil, PB, p. 353)
But Sauron soon fell back into his evil ways, though I can find no precise date for this "apostasy." Certainly by the time the Mirdain were at work on the first of the rings of power, Sauron was already plotting to gain dominion. So, at the very latest, Sauron, by 1500 - 1600 Second Age was trying to become a Great Power. He first built up his control over the Men of the East and the South, avoiding the Numenorean Havens and the Elven realms of Lindon. I imagine he also began gathering the Orcs, Trolls, Wargs and such as well. The Silmarillion does not tell us if he had created a capital and citadel before 1600, but he seems to have based his power in Mordor by at least 1600 when he used the fires of Orodruin to forge the One Ring, and (according to Appendix B LotR, p. 1120) he completed the construction of his first great fortress of Barad-dur.
From 1600 onward, he was at open war with the Elves, and had sufficient strength of Man-power/ Orc-power to ruin Eregion, sack Ost-in-Edhil, and overrun most of the great expanse of Eriador after 100 years of conflict.
He appears to have been on the verge of winning even in Lindon over Gil-galad, Cirdan, and Elrond when the unexpected arrival of a great armada from Numenor (sent by Tar-Miniastir 1700-1701) reversed his fortunes and drove his forces out of Lindon and Eriador altogether. For the next 100 years Sauron completed his conquest of the East, solidifying his control over the Men who lived there. After 1800, a more secure Sauron moved slowly, methodically against his chief foe, Numenor. Around 2250, the ring enslaved kings of Men were finally, fully corrupted into becoming his Nazgul-slaves, a great boost to Sauron's striking power.
Sauron continued to consolidate his position in the East and South, building up his defenses in Mordor for almost 1400 more years, a very long time of gradual preparation for the coming show-down with Numenor. When the power-mad Ar-Pharazon finally decided to contest directly with The Dark Lord for the domination of all Middle-earth (3261 SA) Sauron is again overwhelmed by the absolute power of the West, even if it is just the power of the Mortals who live near, but not in the Undying Lands. Rather than risk an outright battle, Sauron "surrendered," a move that left his carefully constructed power base in Middle-earth largely untouched. As a "prisoner" in Numenor, Sauron gradually turned the mind of Ar-Pharazon to a fuller madness, and initiated the idiotic attempt of Mortal Men to take Valinor.
I would assume that the massive army raised by the Numenorean establishment at its height of worldly glory and military might, would far exceed the power, discipline, and military potential of any army of mortals likely to be fielded elsewhere, even by Sauron in the Third Age (see Sil. "Akalabeth," p. 343 ff). Witnessing the sudden, complete elimination of Ar-Pharazon and his monstrous army, witnessing the destruction of Atalante, and being himself severely damaged in the backlash of the wrath of the gods, Sauron would have had firsthand experience of the futility of invading Valinor with any army composed of Mortal creatures (Orcs, Trolls, Men, etc). I think after this "salutary" lesson, he would never consider a direct attack upon the Undying Lands (at least by force).
Back in Middle-earth, though personally damaged, between 3319 and 3430, Sauron had time to re-inforce his position in Mordor, recruit new armies from the new generations of Orcs, Easterlings, Haradrim, Black Numenoreans, etc. (see Sil, "The Rings of Power," p. 363). At first, after this 100 years of rebuilding his power, Sauron's forces seem to be doing extremely well. They conquered Minas Ithil in 3429, and invested Osgiliath. Then, out of the blue, he was met by the combined Elven and Faithful Numenorean armies of the Last Alliance. Again, despite having built up his power over several thousand years, despite having a full century to ready his immediate defenses and field new armies, Sauron seems to have grossly underestimate the power remaining to the Elves. Between 1600 and 1700 he seemed to have such an easy time in conquering Eregion/ Eriador and pressuring Lindon, that he might be forgiven for thinking -- now that the great power of Numenor was whittled down to just Elendil, his sons and their retinues -- that he could not be successfully resisted.
But Sauron was wrong, although I cannot see any flaw in his slow developed, careful plans of war. Why are the Elves of Gil-galad/ Cirdan able in 3430 - 3441 SA to chase Sauron's forces all the way back to Mordor? What had altered between the first war in 1600-1700 and this second war in 3430? Where did the Elves get their new strength? Or, was Sauron himself vastly weaker in 3430-41, than he was in 1600? Did his brush with the Valar in 3319, reduce his overall power, and addle his wits as well as destroy his physical beauty?
I have not been able to find, in the Tolkien sources I own, a convincing mechanism for this unexpectedly strong Elvish/ Faithful-Numenorean counter attack. It seems to me that Sauron had plenty of time in the 100 years after the destruction of Numenor, to spy out the strengths of his foes, and prepare from his vast hordes of Easterlings/ Haradrim/ Orcs, etc. an appropriate system of strategies, tactics, and logistics to defeat any army of Middle-earth.
Whatever the reason, after a ten year siege (Troy?), Sauron is flushed out into the open some 100 miles away from his citadel of Barad-dur (assuming the Second Age Dark Tower stood where the later Third Age Tower was built). What was the Old Boy doing on Orodruin anyway? Here he wrestles with a couple of Men and Elves, gets thrown, loses a finger and a Ring, and vanishes.
When we compare the military situation of Sauron in the Second Age to his position in the Third Age, it seems to me that he had just about as much time to build up his power (from 1590 to 3441 SA, which would give us 1851 years, if my arithmetic is sound) as he had in the Third Age. Sauron first starts showing up as a potent force around 1050 Third Age when he begins to darken the southern reaches of Greenwood the Great, turning it into "Mirkwood." (see LotR Appendix B, 1122) By 1300 "Evil things begin to multiply again." p. 1122) So, from 1300 down to 3017 Third Age, Sauron has 1717 years to prepare for his Third Age war of conquest. There is, I think, little significant difference in Sauron's time of preparation for the Second Age war (1851) and his final war in the Third Age. So why does his Third Age attempt to dominate Middle-earth, seem so much more threatening, so much more close to success, than was his Second Age war?
In fact, Sauron, would have been a "diminished" Dark Lord throughout his entire Third Age adventures, far less strong than his "normal" power quotient, precisely because he was without the Ruling Ring. I assume that his powers of domination and recruitment would also be weaker in the Third Age without his Precious, yet, still he was, at least in the estimation of the Wise (Elrond, Galadriel, Cirdan, Glorfindel, Galadriel, Gandalf, Saruman, etc) far more likely to conquer this last time round. Was it simply that in the 3000 odd years of the Third Age, the Fading had taken such a great toll upon Faithful Men and Elves alike that they were in a far less capable state for meeting Sauron "force-to-force?"
It seems to me that we have a weaker Sauron in the Third Age, with a weaker power-base, facing a weakened Middle-earth opposition. Had he won his war in 3017 TA, regained his Ring, fully dominated Middle-earth, I think he would still find himself weaker than he was in the Second Age, and even less likely to consider an attempt upon the bastions of Valinor.
LOL! I quit!